So the Mana by-election was a victory for the Gnats - haha...

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeSo the Mana by-election was a victory for the Gnats - haha...

It was always going to be difficult for the Labour candidate Kris Faafoi, he was unknown and up against a seasoned candidate in Hekia Parata.Nobody was going to replace Winnie Laban in a hurry. Her sudden decision to leave politics has never really been discussed.

There were a couple of other good candidates standing which pulled votes off the Labour candidate. But he won and won by over a thousand votes. About 47% of voters bothered to vote, remembering it was postal voting too, which does not guarantee people to vote.

He will triple his majority at next years general elections and double that three years later.

I don't think that Phil Goff had too much an influence on the result; but his inability to find some traction is of concern to the Labour Party.

Labour won and the Gnats came second. Next years general elections will be determined also by the re-emergence of New Zealand First who received 4.5% of the vote at the last elections. I expect Rodney Hide to be defeated, the Maori Party to decline because of their association with National, the Greens to increase their percentage of votes, and New Zealand First to poll at least 5% of the vote. If they go with Labour and the Greens it will be goodbye nurse despite whatever Labour was showing in the pre-election polls. And who cares how popular John key may still be - he may well be a popular political corpse!

Related articles

• "Mana by-election" and related posts (tumeke.blogspot.com)
• "Labour's mistake in Mana almost cost them the 2011 election" and related posts (tumeke.blogspot.com)
• Labour's Kris Faafoi wins Mana by-election (nzherald.co.nz)
• PM sets Mana by-election date (nzherald.co.nz)
• Mana throws up jubilant losers and defiant winners (nzherald.co.nz)

Makes political sense to use a political loophole if you ask me...

I haven't read the booklet yet, but it makes commonsense to use a loophole in the law if there is one. We are fighting an election for the political souls of New Zealanders:

A legal expert believes Labour has made smart use of a loophole in the electoral law.

The party has issued around 64,000 booklets for people aged over 60, which give advice about government entitlements and the impact of this year's tax cuts on the pension.

Associate Professor of Law Andrew Geddis from Otago University says the electoral law still allows MPs to communicate with their constituents.

"Labour has just chosen to do that around election time to remind everybody of what their MPs are doing. If they had used the word 'Labour' or they'd even used the colour red, that may have fallen foul of the election spending rules."

Mr Geddis says the way Labour has crafted the pamphlets means the money spent on them is kept outside the Electoral Finance Act rules.

But National is accusing Labour of dipping its finger back in the public purse in a bid to round up votes.

MP Gerry Brownlee claims the booklets are a twisting of the rules. He says the intention is to have the candidate photograph sitting on the coffee table with the subliminal message that they should be voted for.

Labour was caught out at the last election for spending $800,000 on its pledge card.



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The political polls lack credibility...

The political polls lack credibility. There is almost no real movement and that is not a normal state of affairs.

I took part in a particular political poll many years ago. We were actually a team of about 1200-1500 pollsters for the entire period. If a pollster has their mind made up and the poll favours a particular party from the word go, how can the poll retain any credibility.

I believe this is actually the case now. For a poll to have any credibility the participants need to be changed for every poll. Bunch of old goats if you ask me!

This is my opinion in any case.

John Key still flip-flopping towards the elections...

John Key is still flip-flopping towards the elections...

Can he get away with it? Are Kiwi voters so bloody stupid? I'm beginning to think so - the polls should show the parties closing towards each other now.

He supports 75% of the Labour Government's policies, but wants to turn NZ workers into servants. This is the 'Key difference' - the Employment Contracts Act "Mark Two" and privatisation of ACC.

As far as the privatisation of ACC goes, lets look at what Kiwis agreed to back in 1974: We gave up our right to sue our employers in court in exchange for a no-fault comprehensive cover for work and non-work accidents. We did not make any agreements with private insurance companies!!

Actually this whole ACC policy is aimed to get control of ACC's reserve funds of over six billion dollars to help pay for National's tax cuts!!!

What's John Key's memory like I wonder?

What's John Key's memory like I wonder? Not the best I would suggest. Memory's are made of this, goes an old song.

Back in 2002 John Key was saying the DPB was, for the want of a better word, breeding for business - bit of an inane comment I would also suggest. But, however, this was disputed by his colleague Katherine Rich, who by contrast said most people who were on the DPB were pretty motivated people who have the same dreams and aspirations as anybody else. Benefit bashing was a most unsatisfactory practice that didn't achieve any positive outcomes at all. Katherine Rich resigned from her shadow cabinet post in protest, disillusioned with people such as Don Brash and John Key.

National's polling has been described as "push polling" during which supposed independent telephone pollsters ask questions containing damaging allegations about government politicians to turn voters off a particular candidate ie " Would you support a particular candidate if you knew something(derogatory)about that person", something that may actually not have happened at all - but too late after the election to disprove.

This sort of polling is obviously at the forefront of Key's publicity tactics. This form of polling was used by Don Brash, John Key and the National Party before the last elections. An election that National actually lost, but not according to the National Party? The people of New Zealand elected the Labour- led Government for a three year term.

The National Party has been white- anting this Government from Day One. I would suggest they pull their collective heads in and create policy that would make New Zealand a better place for all its people with a change of government in twelve months time - not the elite of New Zealand society on $250,000 plus per year and able to send their offspring to some elite private school. But that is the Key way ahead of New Zealand with a millionaire potential prime minister.

John Key was part of the decision making that led to Mark Textor and others from Australia who made many visits to this country, including one in late November of 2004, and many more up to September of 2005. A number of telephone calls and written reports were also made and sent to the National Party here.In one of the reports the National Party was urged to raise finance for two election campaigns - the second election was meant to take place when the Labour coalition government broke down, and other parties wouldn't have the finance available to campaign successfully a second time against the National Party. Slim hopes for the dreamers in dreamland. Labour would always be able to raise sufficient funds for an unexpected election. National should always remember that!