A property damaged by the Christchurch earthquake
Predictions of a massive aftershock for Christchurch were not made public by earthquake experts for fear of alarming locals.
GNS scientists have admitted to keeping forecasts of a massive aftershock following the magnitude 4.9 quake on Boxing Day quiet at the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Canterbury earthquakes.
Dr Kelvin Berryman gave evidence and said scientists were very aware that a magnitude 6 may occur.
While the possibility of aftershocks was discussed, social scientists advised them not to make that public, he said.
But Berryman told the inquiry that he believed Kiwis had a right to know that a magnitude 6 may occur so they could prepare.
"There were five or six obvious scenarios where that future earthquake might occur. The worst possible case was directly under the city. Other possibilities were out in the southwest around Wigram, or Lincoln, and areas at Rolleston, and way out at Hororata.
"But we didn't want to alarm unnecessarily.''
Dr Berryman said his colleague Dr Terry Webb said that warning the public was deemed "unhelpful''.
The Royal Commission is charged with investigating buildings that collapsed during the February 22 earthquake
.
The earthquake killed 182 people.
GNS scientists have admitted to keeping forecasts of a massive aftershock following the magnitude 4.9 quake on Boxing Day quiet at the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Canterbury earthquakes.
Dr Kelvin Berryman gave evidence and said scientists were very aware that a magnitude 6 may occur.
While the possibility of aftershocks was discussed, social scientists advised them not to make that public, he said.
But Berryman told the inquiry that he believed Kiwis had a right to know that a magnitude 6 may occur so they could prepare.
"There were five or six obvious scenarios where that future earthquake might occur. The worst possible case was directly under the city. Other possibilities were out in the southwest around Wigram, or Lincoln, and areas at Rolleston, and way out at Hororata.
"But we didn't want to alarm unnecessarily.''
Dr Berryman said his colleague Dr Terry Webb said that warning the public was deemed "unhelpful''.
The Royal Commission is charged with investigating buildings that collapsed during the February 22 earthquake
.
The earthquake killed 182 people.
No comments:
Post a Comment