Sunday, September 26, 2010

Latest NZ Political Poll: Cold shower for labour - what does it mean?

This image was taken at the Europa Lecture 200...Image via Wikipedia
The latest political poll still shows a huge advantage for National - what does it mean?

Latest NZ Political Poll: Cold Shower For Labour  - what does it mean? Indeed! NZ First could prove to be the giant killer if it receives 5% or more at the next election. John Key would be well advised to give this some consideration. Phil Goff could be a New Zealand version of Julia Gillard in Australia. Just imagine National with 45% and Labour putting a coalition government together with a total  of 55% .

It would  take more than slickness and a silly smile for National to survive in power. He would then have to stand down and hand over the leadership to Bill English, earlier than he intends to do if National wins next year.

The poll results:

Labour leader Phil Goff grudgingly admitted this week John Key is a “slick operator.” In damning his opponent with faint praise Goff was seeking to explain Key’s popularity, as distinct from his own lack of it. The latest TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll rated Key at 48% against Goff’s 8%, suggesting even some Labour supporters prefer Key as PM to the Opposition leader. Given Goff has been in Parliament for 26 years, 15 of them as Minister, his rating remains a conundrum his party may have to wrestle with for some time. Opposition MPs had been confident the public was becoming disenchanted with the Govt because of the prospective GST rise, plans to mine the conservation estate and the re-opening of the foreshore & seabed issue.

But the Colmar-Brunton sampling gave them a cold shower. National support is still around 54%, which indicated it has bounced up from the Roy Morgan poll earlier in the month, a track followed by National’s own polling. Labour remained static at 33%, and the gap is so large it adds to pressure on Labour’s hierarchy to find new answers which differentiate it not only from National, but from the legacy of the Clark Govt. Given Jim Anderton is getting set to leave Parliament (possibly to contest the Christchurch mayoralty), the Green Party has lost its greenest champion in Jeanette Fitzsimons, Winston Peters has joined the grey brigade, thousands of votes may be looking for a fresh home at the next election. But Labour in its present shape doesn’t look capable of capturing them.

KR says:

What does this poll really mean? Labour has basically stood still. National goes up and down a bit in percentages. What has never been considered since the last elections is the 4.5% that NZ First received, but failied to win any electorate seats. When MMP is reconsidered in a few years, the coat-tail gains through an electorate seat should be scrapped.  A party which fails to gain 5% of the vote should only receive  what it gains in electorate seats. This should apply to any party. Act would only have one seat under that formula and the Maori Party would still have what it gained through electorate success - five seats.

Please go to: The latest poll!


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Given Goff has been in Parliament for 26 years, 15 of them as Minister, his rating remains a conundrum his party may have to wrestle with for some time.

Thanks for sharing