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Waimakariri Labour MP Clayton Cosgrove faces a crushing defeat as a new poll
shows his National rival, Kate Wilkinson, has opened up a huge lead in the seat.
A Fairfax Media-Research International snap poll in the seat put Wilkinson on 53.9 per cent of decided voters against 36 per cent for Cosgrove.
The only consolation for Cosgrove is that the poll of 250 voters had a margin of error of 6.2 per cent and a high proportion of undecided voters – 23.5 per cent.
The poll also showed a huge lead for National of 71.9 per cent to Labour's 17.4 per cent.
That compares with 2008 when National won the party vote in the seat by 49.4 per cent to 33.9 per cent for Labour.
Paul Epplett of Research International said his best explanation for the huge shift in support was related to the earthquake and polling on that had been positive for National.
"The rebuild of Christchurch is the number one issue and we know 66 per cent of Cantabrians feel the response by the Government has been at least good [only 15 per cent said poor]," he said.
"If the electorate believes that National have done a good job post earthquake, it will likely be translated into confidence in the local candidate."
In the latest nationwide poll, Labour leader Phil Goff's increased popularity seemed to come from Labour voters previously not willing to endorse him.
"A large part of the undecideds ... may also be reserving judgment on Cosgrove," Epplett said.
Cosgrove, who has held the seat for 12 years, has led the party's Christchurch MPs in their response to the earthquake.
Wilkinson is ranked 19 in John Key's Cabinet. Her portfolios include labour and conservation.
She said she was surprised by the poll result and it was hard to know if it was accurate.
Even if he loses the seat Cosgrove is likely to remain in Parliament as a list MP at number eight for Labour.
- The Press
A Fairfax Media-Research International snap poll in the seat put Wilkinson on 53.9 per cent of decided voters against 36 per cent for Cosgrove.
The only consolation for Cosgrove is that the poll of 250 voters had a margin of error of 6.2 per cent and a high proportion of undecided voters – 23.5 per cent.
The poll also showed a huge lead for National of 71.9 per cent to Labour's 17.4 per cent.
That compares with 2008 when National won the party vote in the seat by 49.4 per cent to 33.9 per cent for Labour.
Paul Epplett of Research International said his best explanation for the huge shift in support was related to the earthquake and polling on that had been positive for National.
"The rebuild of Christchurch is the number one issue and we know 66 per cent of Cantabrians feel the response by the Government has been at least good [only 15 per cent said poor]," he said.
"If the electorate believes that National have done a good job post earthquake, it will likely be translated into confidence in the local candidate."
In the latest nationwide poll, Labour leader Phil Goff's increased popularity seemed to come from Labour voters previously not willing to endorse him.
"A large part of the undecideds ... may also be reserving judgment on Cosgrove," Epplett said.
Cosgrove, who has held the seat for 12 years, has led the party's Christchurch MPs in their response to the earthquake.
Wilkinson is ranked 19 in John Key's Cabinet. Her portfolios include labour and conservation.
She said she was surprised by the poll result and it was hard to know if it was accurate.
Even if he loses the seat Cosgrove is likely to remain in Parliament as a list MP at number eight for Labour.
- The Press
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