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Tuesday, February 19, 2013
New poll shows the beginning of the end for National...
A Labour-Greens alliance would need only a handful support from other parties...
Labour could have the numbers to form the next government, according to a new poll that shows the party is slowing gaining on National.
A Fairfax Media-IPSOS poll, released on Wednesday, puts National on 44.9 per cent support, a drop of 1.3 points since December, while Labour has picked up that support and more, rising 1.9 points to 36.3 per cent support.
The Greens are up 0.2 points to 10.7 per cent - and together the parties would have 47 per cent support.
The poll sees NZ First fall back one point to 2.8 per cent - well below the five per cent threshold it needs to cross to get back into parliament at the 2014 election.
The Colin Craig-led Conservative Party, which is outside parliament, is on 1.6 per cent, followed by Mana on 1.4 per cent and the Maori Party on 1.3 per cent.
ACT is on 0.4 per cent support while United Future is on just 0.1 per cent.
Based on the poll, and assuming ACT loses its Epsom seat, National would win 57 seats in parliament, while Labour would get 46 and the Greens 13.
That means National would need five more seats from support partners to form the government, while Labour would need just three.
The poll also finds most voters (60 per cent) think Prime Minister John Key made a mistake keeping Hekia Parata as Education Minister.
Just 22 per cent think she should have stayed in the job, while 18 per cent are unsure.
In Canterbury, the number of voters thinking Ms Parata should have been sacked was 71 per cent.
The result is similar to a One News Colmar Brunton poll, released on Sunday, which found 59 per cent of respondents thought Ms Parata should have been booted from cabinet in last month's reshuffle, while 21 per cent said Mr Key was right to keep her on, and 20 per cent were unsure.
That poll saw a better result for National, jumping five points to 49 per cent support, while Labour and the Greens both dropped back two points, to 33 per cent and 11 per cent.